Geography
Population and migration
- 1.
Fictional town demographic data for one year: starting population 50,000; births 700; deaths 450; in-migrants 1,200; out-migrants 950. No boundary changes. Some newcomers join relatives; local rents rise, but housing supply and incomes are not measured. This is invented teaching data. Distinguish natural increase from net migration.
[2 marks] · no calculatorAnswer explanation
Draft walkthroughs are based on marking guidance, not independently verified derivations.
- Both contribute to population change but arise from different processes. Movement does not belong in the natural-increase calculation.
- Award each point once. Accept other well-supported interpretations addressing the task.
Marking points
- Natural increase is births minus deaths.
- Net migration is in-migrants minus out-migrants.
Examiner tip: Use a net measure rather than treating all arrivals as population gain.
- 2.
Fictional town demographic data for one year: starting population 50,000; births 700; deaths 450; in-migrants 1,200; out-migrants 950. No boundary changes. Some newcomers join relatives; local rents rise, but housing supply and incomes are not measured. This is invented teaching data. Calculate end-year population and percentage growth using the starting population.
[2 marks]Answer explanation
Draft walkthroughs are based on marking guidance, not independently verified derivations.
- The two net contributions are each 250, so the population rises by 500. Divide the change, not the final population, by the specified starting base.
- Award each point once. Accept other well-supported interpretations addressing the task.
Marking points
- Change = (700 - 450) + (1,200 - 950) = 500; end population = 50,500.
- Growth = 500/50,000 × 100 = 1%.
Examiner tip: Use the starting denominator specified in the question.
- 3.
Fictional town demographic data for one year: starting population 50,000; births 700; deaths 450; in-migrants 1,200; out-migrants 950. No boundary changes. Some newcomers join relatives; local rents rise, but housing supply and incomes are not measured. This is invented teaching data. Explain how relatives can influence migration beyond a simple wage difference.
[3 marks] · no calculatorAnswer explanation
Draft walkthroughs are based on marking guidance, not independently verified derivations.
- A network changes the feasibility of a move as well as its attraction. Lower uncertainty and support can make the same destination more accessible to linked households.
- Award each point once. Accept other well-supported interpretations addressing the task.
Marking points
- Relatives can provide housing or financial support that reduces moving costs.
- Networks provide job information and familiarity with local services.
- These links can sustain flows even where wage incentives alone are weak.
Examiner tip: Separate the desire to migrate from the resources enabling migration.
- 4.
Fictional town demographic data for one year: starting population 50,000; births 700; deaths 450; in-migrants 1,200; out-migrants 950. No boundary changes. Some newcomers join relatives; local rents rise, but housing supply and incomes are not measured. This is invented teaching data. Explain why the annual total alone is insufficient for school-place planning.
[3 marks] · no calculatorAnswer explanation
Draft walkthroughs are based on marking guidance, not independently verified derivations.
- An extra 500 people could have very different service implications depending on their ages and addresses. Cohort projections and existing capacity are needed before adding classrooms.
- Award each point once. Accept other well-supported interpretations addressing the task.
Marking points
- Age composition determines how many residents need schooling.
- Spatial distribution determines which schools face demand.
- Timing and future cohort progression matter beyond one year of net growth.
Examiner tip: Do not assume all migrants are working-age adults or all births need school immediately.
- 5.
Fictional town demographic data for one year: starting population 50,000; births 700; deaths 450; in-migrants 1,200; out-migrants 950. No boundary changes. Some newcomers join relatives; local rents rise, but housing supply and incomes are not measured. This is invented teaching data. Evaluate the claim that newcomers caused the rent rise.
[4 marks] · no calculatorAnswer explanation
Draft walkthroughs are based on marking guidance, not independently verified derivations.
- The data show two changes in the same year, not the mechanism or its size. Compare housing completions, vacancies and similar towns before attributing the entire increase to migration.
- Award each point once. Accept other well-supported interpretations addressing the task.
Marking points
- New arrivals may increase housing demand.
- Departures and household formation alter net housing demand.
- Supply constraints, incomes and other demand changes are unmeasured alternatives.
- Concludes that coincidence supports a hypothesis, not an established single cause.
Examiner tip: Net people are not automatically net households.
- 6.
Fictional town demographic data for one year: starting population 50,000; births 700; deaths 450; in-migrants 1,200; out-migrants 950. No boundary changes. Some newcomers join relatives; local rents rise, but housing supply and incomes are not measured. This is invented teaching data. Assess whether population growth is necessarily beneficial for this town.
[4 marks] · no calculatorAnswer explanation
Draft walkthroughs are based on marking guidance, not independently verified derivations.
- The same growth rate can support a declining local economy or strain an already constrained housing market. A useful evaluation asks who gains, when, and whether infrastructure can adapt.
- Award each point once. Accept other well-supported interpretations addressing the task.
Marking points
- Growth may expand the workforce, demand and tax base.
- Housing and services may face capacity pressures.
- Benefits and costs differ between landlords, renters and service providers.
- Makes a conditional judgement using composition, capacity and distribution rather than growth alone.
Examiner tip: A positive demographic balance is not a value judgement.
Marking points are indicative, not an official mark scheme. Accept equivalent valid methods and supported interpretations that address the task; award each mark once without requiring the model wording.