Psychology
Data analysis and inference
- 1.
Fictional recall scores are 4, 5, 5, 6 and 10 words. Calculate the mean and median and identify which is more affected by the highest score.
[3 marks]Answer explanation
Draft walkthroughs are based on marking guidance, not independently verified derivations.
- Order the scores to locate the middle observation. The high score pulls the arithmetic mean upward while the median stays at the central ranked value.
Marking points
- Mean = 30/5 = 6 words.
- Median = 5 words.
- The mean is more affected because every score contributes to the sum.
Examiner tip: With five ordered observations the median is the third score.
- 2.
Fictional survey: hours of social-media use correlate positively with reported loneliness. Explain why this alone does not establish that use causes loneliness.
[3 marks] · no calculatorAnswer explanation
Draft walkthroughs are based on marking guidance, not independently verified derivations.
- A shared pattern fits several causal stories. Without identifying temporal ordering and ruling out plausible confounds, the survey supports association rather than a unique causal explanation.
Marking points
- Direction may be reversed: lonely people may spend more time online.
- A third variable such as social circumstances could influence both.
- Correlation measures association without experimental manipulation or control of all alternatives.
Examiner tip: Give a specific alternative explanation for the observed association.
- 3.
Fictional study: in 20 paired observations, 16 show improved scores, 2 worse scores and 2 ties. For a sign test discard ties and define S as the less frequent sign count. Calculate N and S. A supplied critical S is 4 at the chosen significance level; reject when S <= 4. State the decision and one limitation.
[4 marks]Answer explanation
Draft walkthroughs are based on marking guidance, not independently verified derivations.
- Remove ties before choosing the applicable sample size. Compare the smaller sign count with the supplied lower-tail threshold; the conclusion concerns evidence against the null, not proof that every participant improves.
Marking points
- N = 20 - 2 = 18 non-tied pairs.
- S = 2, the less frequent sign count.
- 2 <= 4, so reject the null hypothesis under the supplied decision rule.
- Accept any explained valid sign-test limitation, such as ignoring change magnitudes or potentially lower power than an appropriate magnitude-sensitive test; significance is not an effect-size estimate.
Examiner tip: Small S, not large S, triggers rejection under this rule.
- 4.
Fictional independent-group result: mean scores are 18 and 14; both groups have standard deviation 5. Using d = (mean A - mean B)/5 for this equal-SD case, calculate d. Explain why the effect size alone does not show statistical significance or causation.
[4 marks]Answer explanation
Draft walkthroughs are based on marking guidance, not independently verified derivations.
- Standardise the mean difference by the common SD supplied. This expresses relative magnitude, whereas significance asks about uncertainty and causation asks about design.
Marking points
- Mean difference = 4 points.
- d = 4/5 = 0.8 standard-deviation units.
- Significance also depends on sample size and sampling uncertainty.
- Causal inference requires suitable design and confound control, not a large d alone.
Examiner tip: Do not read d = 0.8 as an 80% improvement.
- 5.
Fictional case: researchers obtain p = 0.04 and announce a theory is 96% likely to be true. Evaluate this interpretation and the evidence needed for a stronger conclusion.
[4 marks] · no calculatorAnswer explanation
Draft walkthroughs are based on marking guidance, not independently verified derivations.
- The claimed 96% reverses the conditioning. A small p can challenge a null model without validating every part of a theory; inspect the methods, effect estimate and replication record.
Marking points
- Indicative: p concerns the probability of results at least as extreme under the null model and assumptions.
- It is not the probability that the theory or null hypothesis is true.
- Effect size, uncertainty, design quality and multiple-testing decisions affect interpretation.
- A justified conclusion treats the finding as limited evidence requiring replication rather than proof.
Examiner tip: State what p is conditioned on before interpreting it.
- 6.
Fictional case: a researcher tests many outcomes, reports only the significant one and calls the finding confirmatory. Evaluate the reliability of this evidence and propose improvements.
[4 marks] · no calculatorAnswer explanation
Draft walkthroughs are based on marking guidance, not independently verified derivations.
- Exploration can generate hypotheses, but selecting after seeing results is not the same as a planned confirmatory test. Report all analyses and test the selected hypothesis in new data.
Marking points
- Indicative: multiple tests increase the chance of obtaining at least one false-positive result.
- Selective reporting hides the full evidence and makes the result appear more decisive.
- Preregistered outcomes and transparent reporting distinguish planned from exploratory analyses.
- A justified conclusion calls for suitable multiplicity handling and independent replication.
Examiner tip: Do not condemn exploration itself; identify undisclosed selection.
Marking points are indicative, not an official mark scheme. Accept equivalent valid methods and supported interpretations that address the task; award each mark once without requiring the model wording.